A new report by RAND Europe, produced in partnership with Combat Stress and funded by Forces in Mind Trust (FiMT), has explored how future global and societal changes could affect the mental health support needs of the Armed Forces community over the next two decades.
The research sets out five possible future scenarios designed to help charities, policymakers and support organisations test whether current strategies and services are resilient enough to respond to changing demands.
Rather than attempting to predict the future, the report examines how factors such as workforce shortages, increased operational tempo, climate change, public health crises, technological change and global instability could shape mental health needs among serving personnel, veterans and their families.
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One scenario considers the impact of a shrinking working-age population during a prolonged period of relative global peace, while others explore the pressures that could emerge from increased conflict, social inequality and wider societal disruption.
The report argues that organisations supporting the Armed Forces community should avoid planning around a single expected future and instead focus on building adaptable services and partnerships capable of responding to multiple pressures at once.
Researchers also highlighted the importance of viewing mental health more broadly, noting that housing, employment, financial security and social isolation are all likely to influence future wellbeing across the Armed Forces community.
Linda Slapakova, lead author at RAND Europe, said the sector faced “significant uncertainty” around how support needs may evolve in the years ahead.
She said: “This research clearly demonstrates the value of futures and foresight techniques in helping the sector prepare and build resilience to future risks and disruptions.”
Alan Friggieri, director of strategy and communications at Combat Stress, said the charity was already using the findings to inform its long-term planning.
He said: “While the future is difficult to predict, we know it will bring new pressures from technological and societal change to global instability. As the roles, demands and landscape of the Armed Forces shift accordingly, so too must our approach.”
Michelle Alston, chief executive of Forces in Mind Trust, said the report could provide charities and policymakers with “a useful toolkit” to help improve support over the next 20 years.
